Economic Shocks
No food system can be considered resilient if it depends on an economic system that is itself fragile.
The world is currently in a "credit crisis", apparently brought about by the bursting of a number of asset value "bubbles", most notably the price of US housing and a number of financial derivatives linked to that market. Some commentators assume that this downturn is simply part of the economic cycle and that the economy will soon recover.
The Hirsch Report, commissioned by the US Government's Department of Energy, paints a different picture. This report looked at the economic impact of peak oil. It found that
- World oil peaking is going to happen, and it will be abrupt and revolutionary.
- Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
- Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
- The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from the transportation sector).
- Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
- A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
- Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.
- Both supply and demand will require attention.
- It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
- Government intervention will be required.
- Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems can be solved with existing technologies.”)
- More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak time frame.
(Summary quoted from Wikipedia article on peak oil).
In designing a resilient food system we take the view that we should not assume full employment, ongoing availability of investment capital, or even the continuing functioning of economic institutions. A resilient system will be one that can flex to accommodate people who have time to contribute rather than money, and one that minimises its dependency on external resources such as high-tech machinery or agricultural inputs.