Ecological Footprint of Livestock
The environmental impact of meat and dairy production is huge - especially when you consider that many of us eat much more of it than we need. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation has estimated that livestock farming accounts for 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Here in East Anglia around 80% of the grain we grow goes to feed animals, especially pigs and poultry. The desire of an emerging middle class in China and India to eat more meat, following the lead of rich westeners, is a significant contributory factor to the present food shortages. Deforestation in the Amazon to grow soya is one of the main causes of deforestation - itself probably the biggest single contributor to climate change. And that soya is used to feed pigs and poultry throughout the world, including in the UK.
Pigs and poultry are mostly kept on large feedlots or sheds and fed almost entirely on grains and pulses (notably soya) that are suitable for human consumption. Ruminants (cattle and sheep) are more often grazed on grass here in the UK, at least for a lot of the time, but they have a different problem in the shape of the methane they create as they digest the grass. Worst of all is when cattle are fed grain, which means they have a double impact - eating our food supply and still creating methane.
We anticipate that meat production in a post-peak world will be of two main kinds. On the one hand cattle and sheep will continue to be used on marginal land that has no other economic use - marshy river valleys or steep hillsides. Some of the cattle will be dairy cattle and the remainder will be for beef. In fact, it has been suggested that a return to mixed-use cattle, where the same breed produces reasonable outputs in both beef and dairy, would be more efficient than the present very specialised breeds (which also tend to require high-value foods).
On the other hand pigs and chickens will remain in small groups and small total numbers. These will be used to eat kitchen scraps, waste produce on the farm, or byproducts of food processing such as yeast from brewing.
Meat may not be local
Since the purpose of sheep and cattle will be to graze land that has no other agricultural use, it needs to take place in those parts of the country that have that kind of land. Using the right land to rear livestock is much more important, in ecological terms, than the notion of "local" meat.
Conversely, since the function of pigs and poultry is to eat scraps, these may become much more local, including a renewed interest in keeping a pig or a few chickens in the back garden, even in suburban areas.
Changing attitudes to meat consumption
At present the average person in the UK eats well over 1kg per week of meat (including poultry). Yet some people manage to live perfectly well on a vegan diet. We suggest that, if only from the point of view of the most efficient use of limited resources, it makes sense to include some meat in our diet (since animals can eat scraps, and graze marginal land). But the amount of meat we could produce from scraps and marginal land would be a small fraction of our current production levels - perhaps one-fifth or one-quarter.
There are two approaches to cooking with these reduced amounts of meat. One is to continue to prepare meals based around "a piece of meat", as is the British tradition, but to do this only once a week. The other is more typical of peasant cuisine around the world, and involves adding small quantities of meat to dishes based mainly on vegetables, beans and grains. Examples would include chilli con carne, spaghetti bolognese, pasta carbonara, pizza, or bean stews with sausages. This approach provides for a varied and interesting cuisine and also provides the body with a steady supply of some of the micronutrients that are most easily found in meat.
Another cultural shift that is likely to take place as meat prices rise is to value meat more and waste less. Because so many resources go into producing meat, it makes sense to maximise the use of every carcass. This includes the various delicacies made from offal as well as the tradition of boiling bones for soup or stock. Only in an age of over-cheap protein would we consign valuable nutrients to the bin so unthinkingly. Similarly people who have to pay more for meat tend to make better use of the wild game that is available for free to many rural people.
Nor should we assume that we will replace meat with eggs, cheese and other dairy produce. In a post-peak-oil world the UK may be able to sustain similar levels of dairy output to now, but we might not be able to count on the cheese etc we currently import. Also, from a climate change point of view these livestock products, while possibly less damaging than meat, still rank very high. Instead we need to eat "lower down the food chain", by eating pulses, seeds and nuts ourselves (rather than feeding them to livestock to produce meat, milk or eggs).
Many of these changes will come about quite naturally as the price of meat continues to rise dramatically, and people's income falls as a result of the economic turmoil caused by peak oil. But it will also be helpful if, as a society, we can begin to make it fashionable to eat less meat. Or, to put it another way, to consider it rather vulgar to tuck into a 16oz steak, in the same way that it has already become rather vulgar to drive an oversized car.
At East Anglia Food Link we are also interested in how schools and hospitals can reduce their meat intake. To some extent this is more difficult than in the domestic context, bound up at it is in parents' expectations and school food nutrition regulations. But there are more subtle changes that can be made - such as reducing the amount of meat in a cottage pie by substituting lentils, mushrooms etc - and we are in discussions with LEA caterers about this.
Ideally we would like to see schools taking a lead in terms of the cultural shift that is going to be needed. This would include teaching children about the food system, teaching cooking and growing skills, introducing a lower-meat diet and explaining why this is important. Many schools are taking action on a number of these fronts, although meat reduction remains one of the more sensitive issues. Unfortunately it's also probably the single most important step we all need to take in adjusting our diet to a post-peak oil world.